War w/Syria

Supra said:
I just found out we are going to war with them and the air campaign is gonna cost $2 billion alone.. wtf?
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are you fucking wack!? what the fuck are you talking about and what is your source of anything related to United States Military Intervention....
 
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and russia isn't too happy with iran over the whole nuclear test thing
 
There won't be any war with Syria. As long as Russian and China have their backs which they do. They keep vetoing any UN action for the current regime to step down because those currently in power are loyal to them and are keeping the oil flowing their way. If anything I see something happening with Iran soon. They keep testing us and it's only a matter of time before they do something stupid to provoke us.

World News - US aircraft carrier has close encounter with Iranian patrol boat
 
x=FAST=x said:
Let them close it, see what happens. And you think somehow that would not affect world prices? Does not matter, Suez canal is not going for the rest of the world. This is globalization, you fuck with one region you fuck with the rest.

You never disrupt any oil supply.

being 1st 2nd 3rd largest in terms of exporting oil means nothing.


20% of world oil passes there. Thats enough to do serious damage to an already weaken global economy which in the end will cost you jobs specially with your high unemployment. If that means shit, then sure go for it. But there are huge consequences for attacking Iran, and they know this. Why do you think they are so cocky?
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If they close it, those countries receive significantly less oil revenues. Everyone also sees less oil, but guess what--it's neither our oil nor our regime. My point is that I believe Iran hurts themselves and their neighbors by closing the Straits. Likewise, I believe having the Straits closed for weeks or months will cause significantly less oil speculation than attacking Iran and, like Iraq & Afghanistan, having it unstable for many years if not a decade or more.

We have oil here too and, some more interesting recent news, new nuclear reactors have been authorized for the first time in decades. We're not talking about reactor rebuilds or upgrades but entirely new reactors. Hopefully this paves the way to more of our own nuclear plants and thus cheaper power. Maybe we can stop burning oil.

I'm a very laissez faire--I think the government trying to save our industries by entering into a new war is a very bad thing, worse perhaps than even doubling or tripling the cost of gasoline and thus increasing other costs like electricity, food, and consumer goods.

If we attack the Straits of Hormuz, it'll be another preemptive war. If we simply seize the Straits, not all is well--we'll still need to fight inland from there, at least to take out their surface radar if not any artillery or other emplacements. Then when they start shelling our own positions, we'll have to bomb theirs. If they used light artillery and did intermittent shelling (like Hezbollah & Israel), we'll probably miss. Iran with Russia's or China's support means that they probably have access to up-to-date satellite imagery and can try targeting our ships off their coast.

I'm just saying that I think it'll get messy quick. Theoretically, if oil supplies decrease by 20%, we'll see a 25% increase in prices. It'll probably be a 50% increase since these ARE speculators we're talking about. But, how much will oil increase if we have another long engagement there? What if the war, like Afghanistan & Iraq, is more costly than expected? Since we can't really fund it, we'll be debasing our currency which will increase overall inflation and drive prices higher.
 
Bobsama said:
I'm just saying that I think it'll get messy quick. Theoretically, if oil supplies decrease by 20%, we'll see a 25% increase in prices. It'll probably be a 50% increase since these ARE speculators we're talking about. But, how much will oil increase if we have another long engagement there? What if the war, like Afghanistan & Iraq, is more costly than expected? Since we can't really fund it, we'll be debasing our currency which will increase overall inflation and drive prices higher.
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And on the flip side of debt, there could be a radioactive hole in the ground where Israel used to be. Now, in leiu of less extreme circumstances If Iran decided to close Hormuz, they would be shooting themselves in the foot so to speak. They would not only constrict the total amount of oil available globally, but the entire world would feel the economic sideeffects, thus giving us a free pass at initiating a reltaliatory military op. We, and whoever else decided to re-take the straits and donate iranian ships to the bottom of the ocean would be viewed as the peacekeepers and the Iranians would look like bad guys.

If Iran pushed the subject, and counter-attacked, well then it's a fucking hoedown thrown-down dude....hope Tehran has bomb insurance.
 
I'll keep saying it "Let's get our shit together in our country first before pouring money outside our country for useless wars. Factories like the one I use to work have laid off workers because the government will not buy parts when we are at war.".
 
We are not going to war with Syria, relax it ain't happening. It's unlikely we will even institute a no fly zone. If we attack anyone in that part of the mideast it will be Iran, but I doubt we will even do that. Israel will, we won't. The UN has been for years and continues to be an abject failure and waste of time, the day we let the Chinese and Russians have permanent seats on the security council is the day the UN had it's balls cut off. Members of the Security Council can veto any security council resolution unilaterally, so of course two of the three greatest threats to the west vote against resolutions that are in the interest of the west. Unfortunately that often is done at the cost of the citizens of some country somewhere a great distance from the west. I don't see America continuing to be a part of the UN for much longer, it's expensive and it rarely accomplishes anything. The straights of Hormuz is another issue altogether. I've sailed through the straights on a Naval Vessel, a few times. You can see land on both sides of the straights and shipping traffic is at risk of direct fire munitions. Iran could close the straights, but we can and would reopen them within a day. Our 5th fleet is based just 250 miles northwest of the Straights, and more importantly the only way for them to leave their base is through the straights. The Straights won't be closed. A bigger problem is all of the countries that continue to buy oil from Iran, Russia, China and most disappointingly India. We aren't engaging in any more wars under Obama gentlemen, he has an election to win and his base would not support the US defending it's interests abroad.
 
ErikStenger said:
I'll keep saying it "Let's get our shit together in our country first before pouring money outside our country for useless wars. Factories like the one I use to work have laid off workers because the government will not buy parts when we are at war.".
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Well.. that factory should have shifted it's focus and made war stuff lol.., I know what you mean though. People don't understand that government soft power can only work so far, when soft power fails to work, you really don't have much more of an option.
 
Dirty-Lex said:
Well.. that factory should have shifted it's focus and made war stuff lol.., I know what you mean though. People don't understand that government soft power can only work so far, when soft power fails to work, you really don't have much more of an option.
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+20% of what the company I used to work for made were government parts(Jet, tank/mobile arty and helicopter engines). I would work for the company again but not at that plant I was at because of the management. The plant I was at is being ran by noobs that graduated a few years ago. That's why I'm looking at another plant of theirs. PCC Airfoils(Name the company I used to work.) in Mentor NOW HIRING Production Workers....apply at Staff Finders 440-951-0303 or The Reserve Network 440-974-7171.
 
you just found this out?...we've been having problems with syria for a while....

Mexicans are leaving the states and going back to mexico...some are going to canada I know cause my client base is mostly hispanic. Yes things will get worse.
 
Bobsama said:
If they close it, those countries receive significantly less oil revenues. Everyone also sees less oil, but guess what--it's neither our oil nor our regime. My point is that I believe Iran hurts themselves and their neighbors by closing the Straits. Likewise, I believe having the Straits closed for weeks or months will cause significantly less oil speculation than attacking Iran and, like Iraq & Afghanistan, having it unstable for many years if not a decade or more.

We have oil here too and, some more interesting recent news, new nuclear reactors have been authorized for the first time in decades. We're not talking about reactor rebuilds or upgrades but entirely new reactors. Hopefully this paves the way to more of our own nuclear plants and thus cheaper power. Maybe we can stop burning oil.

I'm a very laissez faire--I think the government trying to save our industries by entering into a new war is a very bad thing, worse perhaps than even doubling or tripling the cost of gasoline and thus increasing other costs like electricity, food, and consumer goods.

If we attack the Straits of Hormuz, it'll be another preemptive war. If we simply seize the Straits, not all is well--we'll still need to fight inland from there, at least to take out their surface radar if not any artillery or other emplacements. Then when they start shelling our own positions, we'll have to bomb theirs. If they used light artillery and did intermittent shelling (like Hezbollah & Israel), we'll probably miss. Iran with Russia's or China's support means that they probably have access to up-to-date satellite imagery and can try targeting our ships off their coast.

I'm just saying that I think it'll get messy quick. Theoretically, if oil supplies decrease by 20%, we'll see a 25% increase in prices. It'll probably be a 50% increase since these ARE speculators we're talking about. But, how much will oil increase if we have another long engagement there? What if the war, like Afghanistan & Iraq, is more costly than expected? Since we can't really fund it, we'll be debasing our currency which will increase overall inflation and drive prices higher.
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They are probably getting tariffs for allowing the ships to pass through which is nothing to them. Their money maker is making direct trades with China/russia and many other countries in that region (even Germany). They could care less closing the strait.

With the trillions dollar deficit U.S. is already in. Don't think you can afford another war. Spending needs to stop. You won't see 25% increase in oil prices. You will see much more because the legal cartel OPEC is in for the money, they want lots $$ not break-even.

And again, shutting down means you lose more jobs. Our entire society is fueled by oil. Airlines, mail delivery, trucks transporting good or whatever the fuck you name it. Higher oil means bye bye labor workers don't need you, not circulating the money this time around means depression and nothing else. Shit even NFL or any professional sport league has to cut down on games.

BUt

If there was a military intervention it will not be on the ground. Thats not wise if it is. This isn't Iraq where HUssain army will dissolve quickly. The revolutionary guards (in the hundred thousands) are ready to die for the regime never mind the regular army. Whatever should happen it;s israel's job with the backing of UN.

There are reasons why attacking Iran or North Korea is completely futile specially on the ground.
 
Those reasons are China and the Soviets. The UN is an utterly useless shell of what it once was. They pass far more resolutions admonishing Israel than they ever do supporting it, and Israel is partially to blame for that. They shouldn't stab their friends in the back the way they do. Still, we need Israel to be the front line in the war against radical Islam.
 
I am not talking about whether its feasible or not. It definitely is. What i mean it does come with a big price. Billion dollars spent yet again, a lot more casualties, hurting the global economy. Not even sure if Hussain army even used their tanks and armored vehicles during the 2003 invasion. You may know that one.

After Jimmy carter basically called out against the old regime causing a revolution, the new one built an army only loyal to the regime. I am fairly certain the regular army for the most part with dissolve but i highly highly doubt about the revolutionary guard. That's basically their purpose. The regular army cannot be trusted.

Keep in mind that hussain regime was actually a minority (sunni i think) while Iraq has 4 different sects (kurds, christian, sunni, shite). Iran is not the case.
 
TcRENNO said:
This is the only portion of your comment I have a problem with.
Any portion of the ground troops belonging to the US would destroy this "revolutionary guard". BOTTOM LINE I don't care how ready die the leader of Iran told them they were. That is the difference between us and them. Us being any nation with Volunteer forces, be it Canada U.K. US and so on. We have troops ACTUALLY ready to die for their country. Not slaves forced to serve a tyrant. You think those revolutionary guards want to be there. THINK AGAIN
Not to mention that we spend BILLIONS of dollars to be the tip of the spear technologically. 18 hours we could have 20,000 troops seizing an Airfield, plus whatever Marines are on hand off shore. 72 Hours they will have 50 C-5's and Close to 100 C-17's filled with Strykers, Bradleys, Abrams and Fat fucking TANKERS from Fort Hood. Once the "Iron horses" are there its OVER. I don't care how many hundred thousand slaves they have.
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It would NOT take us 72 hours to get Bradleys and Abrams and Strykers into Iran. We can drive them West from Afghanistan and besiege Tehran a day later. Meanwhile, we'd be bombarding if not already landing Marines along the Persian Gulf, seizing coastal towns and villages and landing armored vehicles on the shore. Meanwhile, dozens of sorties would be flown from our carrier fleet. Then 72 hours later, reinforcements from Europe and the States would be landing and supply lines would be extended all over. 2 days later, Tehran would be captured and most other Iranian cities would be seized, some reduced to gory rubble.

Not that we'd need tanks to crush Iran; our fleet alone could pound them into submission.

That all said, I still don't think it's the right path. If we do it, I want a formal Declaration instead of yet a vague Authorization.
 
The days of congress declaring war are over. You can blame Korea for that one. We are still technically at war with them. Congress has found a way to avoid their obligations in this regard and you can bet they aren't about to start making hard decisions if they don't have too. Help they just reschedule a real on extending the payroll tax cut, not because it was the right thing to do but because it was the easy thing to do.
 
cplmac said:
The days of congress declaring war are over. You can blame Korea for that one. We are still technically at war with them. Congress has found a way to avoid their obligations in this regard and you can bet they aren't about to start making hard decisions if they don't have too. Help they just reschedule a real on extending the payroll tax cut, not because it was the right thing to do but because it was the easy thing to do.
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Well then I'll have no qualms in not supporting a phony war. Unfortunately, it's THIS type of bipartisanship that gets us in trouble; both parties negotiate and compromise, but the final agreement almost always has the worst components of each plan.
 
Bobsama said:
It would NOT take us 72 hours to get Bradleys and Abrams and Strykers into Iran. We can drive them West from Afghanistan and besiege Tehran a day later.
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Wrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrong.

wanna know why?:

1.)

herk%20over%20the%20mountains.jpg




2.) We have few if ANY tanks or bradley's in afghanistan, wana know why?

Exhibit A.
 
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